Crypto Quest

Ethereum has experienced a noticeable surge in its price recently, trading above the psychological $3,000 price mark, which has reignited interest in the crypto market. According to on-chain analysis, retail investors appear to be adopting a “hold” strategy, resisting the urge to sell despite the increase in ETH’s value.

Market analysts view This holding behavior as significant, especially considering the broader market sentiment influenced by the so-called “Trump Trade,” which has contributed to easing risks and enhancing market conditions.

Limited Ethereum Deposits To Exchanges

According to the onatt, the CryptoQuant analyst behind the analysis, this trend of holding ETH without significant profit-taking suggests that many investors still perceive the cryptocurrency as “undervalued,” even at its elevated levels.

Another factor onatt mentioned supporting this observation is the limited inflow of ETH to major exchange deposit addresses such as Binance and OKX, indicating that traders are not moving their assets to sell.

Generally, large volumes of ETH flow into exchanges typically signal impending selling pressure. However, this has not been the case, reflecting a cautious but optimistic outlook among retail market participants.

Key Metric Highlighting Investor Sentiment

Another major metric the CryptoQuant analyst highlighted reinforcing this “hold” sentiment is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which tracks the profitability of spent coins.

onatt reveals that this metric remains close to 1, indicating that most Ethereum transactions are happening near breakeven levels. This data indicates a lack of significant profit realization among ETH holders, highlighting a strong “buy and hold” sentiment.

According to the analyst, when paired with low exchange inflows, this metric also suggests that investors are maintaining confidence in Ethereum’s long-term growth potential.

Furthermore, onatt’s analysis suggests that as long as ETH maintains levels above $2,800, it could pave the way for a swift move toward the $4,000 range.

So far, Ethereum is currently still trading above just above $3,000. While the asset’s price increase is nowhere near that of BTC, it has managed to maintain stability above the crucial psychological price level.

At the time of writing, ETH has surged by 0.2% in the past day with a current trading price of $3,100—a price mark that brings Ethereum a 36.4% decrease away from its all-time high (ATH) of $4,878 registered in 2021.

Analysts have suggested that the current market price of ETH is a notable buying opportunity for the asset. A crypto enthusiast known as venturefounder has particualry predicted a “conservative” $10k-$13k price target for ETH.

$ETH: road to $13k

This could be a transformative cycle for #Ethereum.

$10k-$13k is conservative. pic.twitter.com/q3Er9EG9gS

— venturefounder (@venturefounder) November 19, 2024

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

XRP peaked to $1.26, marking a new two-year-high for the coin. The uplift in the value of XRP has happened at a time when the rest of the cryptocurrency market anticipates some regulatory overhauls in the US, and more so after the results of the US elections. With over 90% gains within seven days, XRP’s price rally has brought back the excitement of investors towards the Ripple token.

Last Friday, the cryptocurrency closed at $1.05, a whopping 116% monthly increase. For comparison, XRP was barely moving at $0.50 a week ago. Although the altcoin appears to be making a rebound, Bitcoin’s recent spike above $93,000 probably contributed to an improvement in market mood overall.

Google Trends Data Indicates Increasing Interest

As XRP’s price has increased, so too has search interest. On Monday, Google Trends displays a peak popularity score of 100, a huge increase from just eight days earlier when it was only 8. This jump indicates a significant increase in public interest, which was probably spurred by XRP’s remarkable price movement and its return to the top market capitalization rankings.

Remarkably, XRP has regained its position above Dogecoin with a market valuation of almost $65 billion. Cryptoes and other market observers have noted the historical significance of XRP’s most recent weekly closure. Nonetheless, some traders are wary, pointing out that the token may be overbought given the relative strength index (RSI) peaking above 93.

#XRP Highest weekly close in 2 years | How high will it go? pic.twitter.com/BcoOWyt2Q1

— Cryptoes (@cryptoes_ta) November 18, 2024

Overcoming Resistance And Forecasts

More than just pushing through the psychological barrier, the price rise of XRP also broke through long-standing resistance levels that had placed the price of this cryptocurrency below $1 for so long. Analysts say this might open a door for further long-term growth. If market sentiment and trading volume remain strong, the best forecasts hold it would experience another upswing.

The price is expected to rise 14.35% during the following month, according to analysts’ optimistic short-term projections. Even more optimistic is the one-year projection, which predicts a 99% increase. Even while these numbers show strong growth potential, the cryptocurrency must hold onto crucial support levels to prevent steep declines.

What’s Next For XRP?

After a sharp increase, XRP is currently trading at $1.14. Thanks to rekindled enthusiasm and macroeconomic conditions that favor digital assets, its ecosystem seems stronger than ever. However, traders should continue to exercise caution. Given that XRP’s RSI is at its highest level since 2017, a consolidation phase may be imminent before another breakthrough takes place.

Long-term outlooks appear promising, but the way forward will probably rely on market developments and Ripple’s capacity to build on its recent gains. Because cryptocurrency may change momentum quickly, investors are keeping a careful eye on things.

Featured image from MoneyCheck, chart from TradingView

The CryptoQuant founder has shared a model for Bitcoin that suggests the cryptocurrency’s maximum price could lie around $135,000 right now.

Bitcoin Model Established On Realized Cap Could Reveal Price Ceiling & Floor

In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has discussed about a BTC pricing model that’s based on the Realized Cap. The “Realized Cap” here refers to an on-chain valuation model for Bitcoin that assumes the ‘real’ value of any coin in circulation is the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain.

For any token, its last transfer is likely to represent the last instance of it changing hands, so the price at its time could be considered as the token’s current cost basis. As such, the Realized Cap is a sum of the cost basis of all coins on the network.

Put another way, the Realized Cap measures the total amount of capital that the holders of the cryptocurrency as a whole have invested into it. A new metric can be derived from this indicator by dividing it by the total circulating supply, representing the cost basis for the average token or investor on the chain.

This indicator is known as the Realized Price. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price itself isn’t of interest, but its two multipliers are: 3.9x and 0.75x. Below is the chart shared by Young Ju that shows the trend in these two multipliers of the Realized Price over the history of Bitcoin.

In the graph, the CryptoQuant founder has marked the 3.9x multiplier of the Realized Price as BTC’s “ceiling price.” Similarly, the 0.75x multiplier represents the “floor price.” An inspection of the trend in the indicator during the past cycles reveals why the analyst has chosen to do so. It turns out that the asset has generally topped at or slightly above the 3.9x multiplier, while it has reached bottoms at or slightly under the 0.75x multiplier.

At present, the ceiling price for the asset is sitting at a value of around $135,741, while the floor price at $26,104. Bitcoin is much higher than the latter right now, but there is also an appreciable distance to the former.

This means that at the current amount of capital invested into the cryptocurrency, it still has room for growth, at least going by the pattern observed throughout history.

Naturally, the ceiling price isn’t something that’s certain to remain where it is now for the rest of the bull run, since any further fresh capital inflows into the asset would raise it. But for now, under $136,000 is looking like Bitcoin’s upper limit.

BTC Price

The Bitcoin rally has hit a pause button recently as the coin’s value is still trading around $90,000 right now.

The US-based spot Ethereum ETFs have continued to experience a high market interest following Donald Trump’s emergence as the next US President. As institutional investors continue to position themselves for a massive crypto bull run, these Ethereum ETFs have now registered over $500 million in weekly inflows for the first time since their trading debut in July. Meanwhile, the spot Bitcoin ETFs maintain a splendid performance, closing another week with over $1 billion in inflows.

Spot Ethereum ETFs Notch Up $515M Inflows To Extend 3-Week Streak

According to data from ETF aggregator site SoSoValue, the spot Ethereum ETFs attracted $515.17 million between November 9-November 15 to establish a new record weekly inflows, as they achieved a 3-week positive inflow streak for the first time ever.  During this period, these funds also registered their largest daily inflows ever, recording $295.48 million in investments on November 11. 

Of the total market gains in the specified trading week, $287.06 million were directed to BlackRock’s ETHA, allowing the billion-dollar ETF to strengthen its market grip with  $1.72 billion in cumulative net inflow.

Meanwhile, Fidelity’s FETH remained a strong market favorite with $197.75 million in inflows, as its net assets climbed to $764.68 million. Grayscale’s ETH and Bitwise’s ETHW also accounted for weighty investments valued at $78.19 million and $45.54 million, respectively. 

Other ETFs such as VanEck’s ETHV, Invesco’s QETH, and 21 Shares’ CETH experienced some significant inflows but of no more than $3.5 million. With no surprise, Grayscale’s ETHE continues to bleed with $101.02 million recorded in outflows, albeit retains its position as the largest Ethereum ETF with $4.74 billion in AUM. 

In general, the total net assets of the spot Ethereum ETFs also decreased by 1.2% to $9.15 billion representing 2.46% of the Ethereum market cap.

Related Reading: Spot Bitcoin ETFs Draw Over $2 Billion Inflows As Ethereum ETFs Turn Green Again – Details

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Remain Buoyant With $1.67B Inflows

In other news, the spot Bitcoin ETFs market recorded $1.67 billion in the past week to continue its stunning performance of Q4 2024. While the Bitcoin ETFs saw notable daily outflows of over $770 million at the week’s end, earlier weighted inflows of $2.43 billion proved quite significant in maintaining the market’s green momentum. 

BlackRock’s IBIT, which ranks as the market leader and the best-performing crypto spot ETF, now boasts over $29.28 billion in inflows and $42.89 billion in net assets.  Meanwhile, the total net assets of the spot Bitcoin ETF returned to above $95 billion, capturing 5.27% of the Bitcoin market.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $90,175 with Ethereum hovering around $3,097.

They say journalists never truly clock out. But for Christian, that’s not just a metaphor, it’s a lifestyle. By day, he navigates the ever-shifting tides of the cryptocurrency market, wielding words like a seasoned editor and crafting articles that decipher the jargon for the masses. When the PC goes on hibernate mode, however, his pursuits take a more mechanical (and sometimes philosophical) turn.

The Bitcoin market appears to have taken an intriguing turn as the asset’s reserves on centralized exchanges have hit the lowest levels since November 2018.

This development, highlighted by a CryptoQuant analyst known as G a a h, points out a notable change in BTC’s investor behavior within the crypto space and also suggests quite an interesting trend for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Reserves On Exchanges Reach Five-Year Low

According to the analyst, Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have diminished significantly throughout 2024, reflecting a shift towards long-term holding strategies among market participants.

This trend suggests that investors increasingly transfer their assets to private wallets, reducing the supply available for immediate sale and contributing to buying pressure in a market already constrained by supply.

According to G a a h, this behavior indicates a broader sentiment shift, with market participants displaying increased confidence in Bitcoin as a store of value amidst “economic uncertainty and rising inflation.”

By moving Bitcoin away from exchanges, investors reduce the likelihood of sudden sell-offs, which can lead to increased price stability. However, the reduced supply on exchanges may also lead to heightened volatility, especially if demand continues to grow or remains consistent.

The CryptoQuant analyst noted:

With that said, this scenario signals a potentially more volatile but more resilient Bitcoin market, with less selling pressure and a growing dominance of long-term holders, which could open up space for new price peaks.

BTC’s Upward Momentum Cools Off

Following an all-time high (ATH) of $93,477 on Wednesday, November 13, BTC has faced quite a noticeable correction, now down by 4% from this peak. So far, the asset has been unable to continue its upward momentum and appears to be seeing more sell-offs.

When writing, Bitcoin trades below $90,000 with a current trading price of $89,779, down by 1.4% in the past day. This price decline resulted in roughly $49 billion subtracted from its market capitalization valuation on Wednesday.

For context, as of today, BTC’s market cap sits at $1.775 trillion, a nearly 5% decrease from the $1.835 trillion valuation two days ago. Bitcoin’s daily trading volume dropped from over $100 billion earlier this week to below $85 billion.

Besides the implications on its market cap and trading volume, BTC’s decline has significantly impacted a handful of traders. According to data from Coinglass, in the past 24 hours alone, roughly 170,215 traders have been liquidated, bringing the total liquidations in the crypto market to $510.13 million.

Out of these total liquidations, Bitcoin accounts for $132.43 million, with the majority of the liquidations coming from long positions—those who bet that the upward momentum would continue.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView