Crypto Quest

A recent report from crypto data and research firm Messari has shed light on the performance of the Solana (SOL) ecosystem during the third quarter of 2024. The report highlights a mixture of growth and challenges faced by the blockchain amid broader volatility in the cryptocurrency market during that period.

Solana Stablecoin Market Cap Rises To $3.8 Billion

One of the standout metrics from the report is the growth of Solana’s Total Value Locked (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi), which rose by 26% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) to reach $5.7 billion. 

This growth positioned Solana as the third-largest network in terms of DeFi TVL, surpassing Tron in late September. Notably, the TVL denominated in SOL also increased, growing by 20% QoQ to 37 million SOL.

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Kamino emerged as a leading player within the Solana ecosystem, experiencing a 57% growth in TVL, ending the quarter with $1.5 billion and capturing a 26% market share. This surge is attributed to the integration of new tokens, including PayPal’s USD (PYUSD) and jupSOL, which have enhanced the platform’s appeal.

Despite the overall positive trends, decentralized exchange (DEX) volume experienced a slight decline, reflecting a downturn in memecoin trading. Average daily spot DEX volume fell by 10% QoQ to $1.7 billion. 

Per the report, the diminishing interest in memecoins was evident, as only two tokens—WIF and POPCAT—managed to make it into the top ten by trading volume for the quarter.

In contrast, Solana’s stablecoin ecosystem showed resilience, with the market cap for stablecoins growing by 23% QoQ to $3.8 billion, solidifying its rank as the fifth-largest network in this category. 

On the non-fungible token (NFT) front, however, the performance was less favorable. Average daily NFT volume fell by 27% QoQ to $2.5 million, with Magic Eden maintaining a dominant market share despite experiencing a 44% decline in volume. 

Network Activity Thrives

Despite the challenges, the number of funding rounds for projects within the Solana ecosystem saw a reduction of 37% QoQ, with only 29 projects announcing funding. Yet, the total amount raised soared to $173 million, a 54% increase QoQ and the highest quarterly funding since Q2 2022.

Network activity remained robust, as evidenced by a 109% increase in average daily fee payers, which reached 1.9 million. Additionally, the average daily new fee payers grew by 430% QoQ to 1.3 million, signaling a growing user base. 

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The average transaction fee on Solana increased by 6% QoQ to 0.00015 SOL (approximately $0.023), while the median transaction fee dropped by 19% to 0.000008 SOL (around $0.0013). 

As of October 15, Solana’s market capitalization also grew by 5% QoQ, reaching $71 billion and maintaining its position as the fifth-largest cryptocurrency, trailing only Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, and Binance Coin. 

However, the Real Economic Value (REV) of Solana, which tracks transaction fees and miner extractable value (MEV) for validators, decreased by 25% QoQ to 1.3 million SOL (approximately $196 million), with 56% of this total coming from transaction fees.

At the time of writing, SOL was trading at $166, down 5% for the seven day period.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Solana (SOL) is trading around a crucial demand level at $165, following a pullback from recent highs of $183. This level is pivotal for SOL, as losing it could trigger a deeper correction, putting the altcoin at risk of further downside. 

However, prominent analyst Carl Runefelt has shared technical analysis indicating that Solana may be primed for a brief correction before staging a rally to retest local highs.

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Runefelt’s analysis highlights signs of renewed strength for SOL, suggesting that the altcoin is preparing for a move that could challenge recent highs within the next few days. This bullish setup depends heavily on Solana maintaining support at $165, which could act as a launchpad for further upward momentum. 

As the crypto market closely watches Bitcoin’s bid for a new all-time high, Solana investors are bracing for potential volatility. In this uncertain landscape, Solana remains a focal point for investors who see an opportunity if support holds steady. 

Solana Holding Key Demand Level

Solana (SOL) has emerged as one of the stronger-performing altcoins this cycle, drawing significant attention as it tests a key demand level that could drive it toward new highs. Prominent analyst and investor Carl Runefelt recently shared a technical analysis on X, indicating that SOL may briefly dip to around $160 before staging a push to retest its recent high at $180.

According to Runefelt, this $160 level represents a critical support zone for Solana, as holding above it is essential to sustain the altcoin’s bullish momentum and confirm its ongoing uptrend. Runefelt’s analysis emphasizes the importance of this support level in fueling Solana’s potential for gains, suggesting that it could serve as a springboard for a substantial rally. 

If SOL successfully holds above $160, a surge to test local highs would not only reinforce confidence among investors but also set the stage for Solana to push into new territory if broader market conditions remain favorable.

The coming week could prove pivotal for SOL as the market braces for heightened volatility with the US election on the horizon (Nov 5) and Bitcoin nearing its all-time high.

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As investors monitor macro events and Bitcoin’s movements closely, Solana’s technical setup around $160 will be a focal point for those seeking to capitalize on the altcoin’s potential gains. If Solana maintains its bullish structure, it could play a key role in leading the altcoin market forward in this cycle.

SOL Technical Levels To Watch

Solana is trading at $166 after a slight rebound from the $163 level, maintaining a strong position above the critical $160 support zone. This level has proven to be a vital threshold for SOL, as a sustained hold here could set the stage for a rally toward higher resistance levels. 

If buyers successfully defend $160, it may serve as the foundation for a climb to $183 and potentially beyond, with higher supply zones likely to be tested.

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Analysts are watching this level closely, as it could either reinforce SOL’s bullish structure or signal the need for further consolidation. A breakdown below $160, however, would likely lead to a deeper correction, prompting traders to recalibrate their expectations as Solana seeks lower support levels. The next few days will be crucial as the market evaluates SOL’s strength at $160 and prepares for potential moves to new highs.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) has had a volatile 24 hours, hitting as low as $68,830 on the Binance crypto exchange before recovering some losses.

Liquidation Data At A Glance

Although BTC is trading close to its all-time high (ATH) value of $73,737, yesterday’s quick drop in price cast doubts on whether the top digital asset will be able to record a new ATH.

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According to CoinGlass data from the crypto liquidations tracker, more than $296 million of active positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours. 

Nearly 77% were long positions, indicating that traders were largely betting on BTC’s continued upward momentum. Binance saw the most liquidations at $124 million, followed by OKX with $74 million and Bybit with $65 million.

In digital assets, Bitcoin led with over $97 million worth of positions liquidated, followed by Ethereum (ETH) at $47 million, and Solana at nearly $17 million.

With yesterday’s slump, the total crypto market cap has shrunk by about 3.5%, currently valued at $2.48 trillion. It is worth noting that although BTC is close to its ATH, the total crypto market cap is still considerably far from its ATH of $2.98 trillion recorded in November 2021.

The gap between BTC’s performance and the overall market cap suggests that altcoins have not kept pace with BTC’s recent gains, contributing to the disparity. This could also indicate a cautious investor sentiment, favoring BTC over altcoins during uncertain periods.

At the same time, it suggests that there is still a lot of room for altcoins to grow, which could tempt some more risk-seeking investors to accumulate altcoins in hopes of extraordinary gains relative to BTC.

That said, Bitcoin dominance – a metric that gauges the proportion of the overall crypto market cap commanded by BTC – is steadily climbing toward 60%. A higher BTC dominance could spell disaster for altcoins already trailing BTC in price action.

Can Bitcoin Still Hit ATH?

The question on the minds of crypto enthusiasts is whether BTC will achieve a new ATH during this rally. The answer is not straightforward.

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Factors supporting a potential new ATH include the increased likelihood of pro-crypto US presidential candidate Donald Trump winning the election, the effects of BTC halving, increased inflows to BTC exchange-traded funds (ETF), and a low interest rate environment.

On the contrary, sentiment indicators like the Fear and Greed Index suggest the market is still in a ‘greed’ phase, hinting that there could be more pain for the market before the next leg up.

Regardless of the outcome, the crypto market will likely remain volatile in the coming days. However, long-term BTC holders do not appear fazed by this prospect, as profit-taking remained relatively muted when the digital asset crossed $71,000.

At press time, BTC trades at $71,524, up a modest 0.6% in the past 24 hours, with a reported market cap of $1.41 trillion.

Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from CoinGecko, CoinGlass, and Tradingview.com

Ethereum missed out on this week’s crazy price movements. For the last couple of days, Bitcoin has dominated the bigger crypto market, making gigantic strides almost crossing the $73,500 mark for its best in recent months. Other altcoins have also followed that trajectory as SOL and DOGE trail Bitcoin.

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As Bitcoin retests a new high this October, Ethereum lags, even touching a low of $2,322 last October 3rd. Since then, Ether has slowly inched its way up the price charts, reaching as high as $2,721, before re-tracing the $2,500 level.

🧵 Crypto Network Dynamics: Analyzing Address Activity, Transaction Volume, and Market Dominance Trends.

1/4: Ethereum leads in active addresses with 43%, reflecting strong network activity. Tron follows at 21%, signaling its growing user base, with Tether and Toncoin also… pic.twitter.com/zjyjQlqXBL

— IT Tech (@IT_Tech_PL) October 30, 2024

Analysts say Ether’s recent move is due to increased on-chain activities. Based on IntoTheBlock data, Ethereum’s blockchain has seen an increase in addresses, beating other ecosystems. The blockchain accounts for 43% of all active addresses, leading other popular blockchain projects like BTC, TRX, TON, and USDT.

Ethereum Addresses Dominate

The active addresses in a blockchain are an important metric that analysts check to gauge the blockchain’s popularity. According to InTheBlock tracking, the Ethereum blockchain remains the leader, accounting for 43% of all active addresses.

Tron comes in second, with a 27% share of all active addresses. TON by Telegram is also in the Top 5 list of InTheBlock as of October 1st, and it offers an interesting picture of an increasing user base.

Other tokens making significant inroads in active addresses are USDT by Tether and Toncoin. Analysts say this data indicates Ethereum’s dominance, particularly in adoption and network activity.

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Can We Expect An ETH Price Rally Soon?

Recent data from active addresses reveal that currently, Ethereum is the most active blockchain. The strength of demand and interest for DeFi projects, dApps, and even NFTs can be ascribed to activity in its ecosystem.

As some blockchain analysts note, improving network activity and adoption often increases prices. ETH can surprise with increased active addresses and prevailing market conditions. Other on-chain data support the blockchain. For example, its Exchange Supply Ratio is down to 0.141 from 0.145, increasing accumulation.

What To Expect From Ethereum In The Next Few Days

Currently, ETH trades at $2,516, which has a weekly gain of 3.74%. There are also an increasing number of active addresses and strong uptrend. Analysts predict ETH to retest the mark of $2,800 in the coming weeks or months.

Featured image from Bankrate, chart from TradingView

Tim Robinson, Head of Crypto Research at BlueYard Capital, has unveiled groundbreaking simulations indicating that Ethereum’s implementation of “blobs” could be exceptionally bullish for the long-term price of ETH. In a series of posts on X, Robinson highlighted how blobs could revolutionize Ethereum’s scalability and economic dynamics.

“Many people arguing about blobs, but so far no one has simulated how they respond to demand… until now,” Robinson stated. “TL;DR: Blobs are insanely bullish for ETH long term.”

Why Blobs Are ‘Insanely Bullish’ For Ethereum Price

Blobs, introduced in Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP)-4844, are large data structures designed to enhance the network’s capacity by efficiently storing and processing data off-chain. This mechanism is pivotal for Layer 2 (L2) scaling solutions, enabling them to offer lower transaction fees while maintaining security through Ethereum’s consensus.

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Robinson’s simulation projects Ethereum operating at 10,000 transactions per second (TPS), burning 6.5% of its total ETH supply annually, with L2 transactions costing an average of $0.06. This scenario involves 16 MB of blobs per block, aligning with Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin’s medium-term goals outlined in his latest “The Surge” post.

“Yes, that’s Ethereum operating at 10k TPS, burning 6.5% a year while L2 transactions cost an average of $0.06, with 16 MB of blobs per block,” Robinson elaborated. “You thought L2’s were parasitic and Vitalik didn’t think this through? Ah, sweet summer child, little do you realize how insane this will get when the Ethereum ecosystem really kicks into high gear.”

A key insight from Robinson’s research is the rapid escalation of ETH burning as blob usage increases. “It’s interesting how quickly blobs go from being free to burning a ton of ETH. It seems almost everyone doesn’t understand this tipping point. It also makes me think there might be a better pricing mechanism,” he observed.

Robinson provides a simulation tool illustrating the ETH burn rate‘s exponential growth as TPS scales from the current ~180 TPS to 400 TPS. The data shows burned ETH increasing from roughly 4 ETH per day to 1,832 ETH per day.

It’s interesting how quickly blobs go from being free to burning a ton of ETH. It seems almost everyone doesn’t understand this tipping point. It also makes me think there might be a better pricing mechanism.

Here’s what it looks like increasing from today’s ~180TPS to 400TPS pic.twitter.com/fjuK19NL6y

— Tim Robinson (@timjrobinson) October 29, 2024

The scalability potential is further enhanced by the implementation of Peer Data Availability Sampling (PeerDAS), which allows blob capacity to scale with the number of validators. “Because total blob capacity scales with total validators, after PeerDAS is implemented, blobs can scale as high as needed,” Robinson explained. “There are 10k+ nodes to shard the load between them. While other ecosystems struggle under load, Ethereum will supply the world with cheap, abundant block-space while being extremely deflationary.”

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An intriguing feedback loop identified by Robinson is the inverse relationship between ETH price and the burn rate. “Another interesting feedback loop is the lower the ETH price, the higher the burn! As transaction prices are lower, more transactions are made, and the burn soars,” he noted. “See how different the burn is with ETH at $2k vs ETH at $10k”.

Another interesting feedback loop is the lower the ETH price, the higher the burn! As transaction prices are lower, more transactions are made, and the burn soars. See how different the burn is with ETH at $2k vs ETH at $10k: pic.twitter.com/tbSbC6unwM

— Tim Robinson (@timjrobinson) October 29, 2024

Addressing the question of value accrual for ETH, Robinson stated, “So how will ETH accrue value? Being the most useful, scarce, deflationary asset with 10,000+ teams using Ethereum to grow their products will probably do it. Long term, ETH has the best fundamentals in the world; it just takes time for them to play out.”

The research sparked enthusiasm and discussions within the ETH community. Mat (@materkel) commented on X: “Will be extremely interesting once we hit blob capacity. My guess is a lot of L2s still need to figure out how to handle this case and properly fee their users. There will be a lot of inefficiencies to fix; we just didn’t really have multiple competing L2s in this scenario before. Once the dust settles, we’ll have proper price discovery both for fees on L2s together with blobs on L1.”

Robinson responded, emphasizing the importance of proactive analysis: “Yeah, absolutely! I’m trying to bring the data so we can solve any problems before we get there. The market becomes more stable with more blobs, but in the early days, fees could be quite volatile.”

At press time, ETH traded at $2,638.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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In an analysis shared on X, Taran Sabharwal, CEO of Stix—a leading OTC trading platform specializing in liquidity solutions for private crypto transactions—provided insights into the upcoming unlock dynamics of the Celestia (TIA) token scheduled for October 31, 2024. His assessment suggests that the market may be underestimating the potential impact on TIA’s price action heading into November.

Why Celestia (TIA) Could Be A Buy

“TIA – an OTC story,” Sabharwal began. “We used on-chain data (via @celenium_io API) to judge exactly how the unlock dynamics may shape TIA’s PA going into Nov. The results are in the table above. We’ve summarized that a total of 92.3M TIA will be liquid post unlock, which would act as the upper bound of overall spot selling pressure.”

Interestingly, this figure accounts for less than 50% of the total cliff unlocks, suggesting that the actual sell pressure may be only half of what the market has been anticipating. Sabharwal highlighted that the real increase in circulating supply compared to the current supply indicates a 41.8% dilution.

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A significant factor in this dynamic is the activity of OTC buyers who acquired large amounts of the initial unlock and hedged on perpetual futures, causing open interest to surge in recent months. “We expect many of these shorts to continue winding down, partially negating the spot-selling pressure,” he explained. This unwinding could serve as a bullish signal for spot buyers due to the potential reset in funding rates.

Sabharwal’s analysis included several key assumptions. OTC round buyers possess an 11 million TIA cliff unlock, included in the non-staked token category since these tokens originated from treasury wallets not tagged on the blockchain explorer. His team mapped a total of 292 vesting wallets but acknowledged some gaps, which were also included in the non-staked category.

Reflecting on TIA’s OTC history on Stix, Sabharwal observed that Celestia has been one of the most actively traded assets in the OTC market this cycle. Early in the cycle, it offered an attractive opportunity for directional buyers, while sellers were eager to realize large unrealized profits without expecting an imminent bull market in Q3 2023.

He continued: “In Q1 2024, the bull had matured and TIA rallied to $20+. OTC activity was minimal here as sellers didn’t want to take larger discounts (40+%) and buyers didn’t want to bid higher than the $8.5 ceiling. We saw almost no activity as sellers were ‘feeling’ rich and wanted to stay risk-on, despite having the opportunity to realize 100-800x on their investments.”

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The dynamics shifted when TIA fell below $5. This was around the time when the Celestia Foundation started raising its OTC round of $100M at $3. “The vesting for buyers was the same as those of private investors—33% unlock on Oct 31 2024 (<2 months from the round) and a 12-month linear unlock,” Sabharwal noted.

During the third and fourth quarters of 2024, aggressive OTC trading activity resumed, with sellers offloading various positions. Stix alone facilitated approximately $60 million in TIA volume since July, suggesting that total trading volume could exceed $80 million across all liquidity channels, assuming Stix holds a 75% market share in the OTC space.

Summing up his analysis, Sabharwal concluded: “TLDR: Shorts will keep unwinding into the unlock and funding rates may reset to 0 or positive. People who missed the 9th October unstaking deadline may also have unstaked during October, causing further spot supply (ready to be sold) going into November. Either way, the supply shock is massive and it’s been the most broadcasted unlock of this cycle. That, coupled with suppressing OTC discounts, may create a lot of action for the coin.”

Renowned crypto analyst Will Clemente also weighed in on the developments via X: “Great piece on $TIA OTC activity by Taran from Stix. TLDR: OTC discount to spot in the private market has compressed over the last year, showing growing demand into the unlock. Stix alone has done $60mm in TIA OTC volume since July.”

Clemente added his perspective on the potential market impact: “I think this BTC price action has further slid the probability of Thursday’s TIA unlock being bearish towards ‘no’. 6 months of reaccumulation after 80% drawdown, ton of OTC volume, most widely telegraphed unlock in crypto history, 9 figs short, BTC nearing ATHs. Am long rn.”

At press time, TIA traded at $5.00.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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As Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, inches closer to its all-time high of $73,700 reached in March, the US spot Bitcoin ETF market has re-emerged as a key driver of the cryptocurrency’s recent price surge.

On Tuesday, total trading volume for spot Bitcoin ETFs surpassed $3 billion, coinciding with Bitcoin’s price briefly above the pivotal $73,000 mark for the first time in over 7 months. 

Bitcoin ETF Market Set To Surpass 1 Million BTC Holdings Soon

Notably, crypto investor BigRig observed a remarkable uptick in Bitcoin ETF purchases over the past two weeks, reporting $2.673 billion in inflows since October 16. 

This accounts for a substantial 11.8% of total ETF inflows during this period, suggesting a robust interest from institutional and retail investors. BigRig also pointed out that, prior to Tuesday’s trading volume, this period represented the best day for ETF inflows.

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Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas added to the optimistic narrative by stating that US spot ETFs are on track to hold 1 million Bitcoin by next Wednesday, surpassing the holdings of Satoshi Nakamoto, the enigmatic creator of Bitcoin, by mid-December with an average addition of about 17,000 BTC per week.

However, Balchunas also cautioned that market volatility could impact these projections. “Anything can happen,” he noted, referencing the possibility of a sudden selloff that could delay the timeline. 

Conversely, if prices continue to rise and political factors, such as a potential Trump victory in the upcoming election, contribute to increased market enthusiasm, the expert believes that this influx of new investors could accelerate the pace of Bitcoin’s ascent to new highs.

Whale Accumulation Spurs Optimism

Despite heightened activity in the Bitcoin ETF market, the price of the largest cryptocurrency recently fell short of its all-time high, retracing to approximately $72,250 at the time of writing. 

However, there are positive indicators for Bitcoin bulls. The cryptocurrency has been consolidating above key support levels, with strong backing around the $66,000 mark. 

This support has effectively prevented any significant decline over the past week and has contributed to the ongoing rally. However, what would be a notable bullish indicator would be a sustained consolidation above the $70,000 level for the bulls, which could further demonstrate the strength of the current move.

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Market expert Miles Deutscher has been vocal about his bullish outlook for Bitcoin, particularly in the latter months of the year. He recently pointed out a significant trend: whales—large holders of Bitcoin—are accumulating the cryptocurrency at an “unprecedented pace.” 

This observation suggests that institutional demand for Bitcoin is currently outpacing retail interest, a shift that could have implications for massive price movements to the upside in the near future.

Deutscher further highlighted that Bitcoin exchange reserves have reached all-time lows. This means that the amount of Bitcoin available on exchanges for trading has dwindled, signaling a supply squeeze.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com